Updated on September 27, By Ken Begg 18 Comments Upon viewing this assembly of stills from the climax one of them, anyway of Jaws:
If you are American, SSC endorses voting in this presidential election. Andrew Gelman, Nate Silver, and Aaron Edlin calculate the chance that a single vote will determine the election ie break a tie in a state that breaks an Electoral College tie. It ranges from about one in ten million if you live in a swing state to one in a billion if you live in a very safe state.
The average American has a one in sixty million chance of determining the election results. The paper was from the election, which was a pro-Obama landslide; since this election is closer the chance of determining it may be even higher.
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But Presidents do shift budgetary priorities a lot. Neither of these are pure costs — Obamacare buys us more health care, and military presence in Iraq buys us [mumble] — but if you think these are less or more efficient ways to spend money than other possible uses, then they represent ways that having one President might be better than another.
In order to add signal rather than noise to the election results, we have to be better than the average voter. I recommend the Outside View — looking for measurable indicators correlated with ability to make good choices. IQ might be another. Suppose you live in a swing state. If you value the amount of time it takes to vote at less than that, voting is conceivably a good use of your time.
SSC endorses voting for Hillary Clinton if you live in a swing state. If you live in a safe state, I endorse voting for Clinton, Johnson, or if you insist Stein. If you want, you can use a vote-swapping site to make this easier or more impactful. I think Donald Trump would be a bad president.
Partly this is because of his policies, insofar as he has them. But the latest news says: This is going to be close.
And since the lesson of Brexit is that polls underestimate support for politically incorrect choicesthis is going to be really close. But if some of my blogging on conservative issues has given me any political capital with potential Trump voters, then I this is where I want to spend it.
So here are some reasons why I would be afraid to have Trump as president even if I agreed with him about the issues. Many conservatives make the argument against utopianism.
These same conservatives have traced this longing through leftist history from Lenin through social justice. Which of the candidates in this election are millennarian?
If Stein were in, same, no contest. The left and right both critique Hillary the same way. All she wants to do is make little tweaks — a better tax policy here, a new foreign policy doctrine there.
The critiques are right. Hillary represents complete safety from millennialism. In my review of Singer on MarxI wrote that: It seemed like a pretty big gap. But in fact Marx was philosophically opposed, as a matter of principle, to any planning about the structure of communist governments or economies.
There might be some very light planning, a couple of discussions, but these would just be epiphenomena of the governing historical laws working themselves out. Just as, a dam having been removed, a river will eventually reach the sea somehow, so capitalism having been removed society will eventually reach a perfect state of freedom and cooperation.
Hegel viewed all human history as the World-Spirit trying to recognize and incarnate itself. As it overcomes its various confusions and false dichotomies, it advances into forms that more completely incarnate the World-Spirit and then moves onto the next problem.
Finally, it ends with the World-Spirit completely incarnated — possibly in the form of early 19th century Prussia — and everything is great forever.
So once the World-Spirit resolves the dichotomy between Capitalist and Proletariat, then it can more completely incarnate itself and move on to the next problem. Except that this is the final problem the proof of this is trivial and is left as exercise for the reader so the World-Spirit becomes fully incarnate and everything is great forever.
And you want to plan for how that should happen?
Are you saying you know better than the World-Spirit, Comrade?Trevor Noah and The World's Fakest News Team tackle the biggest stories in news, politics and pop culture.
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