The path of ISI in basically agricultural countries required imports of machines and technology. So, in the process of industrialization these countries began to face acute balance-of-payments problems. This led many southern countries to follow the path of export-oriented industrialization.
The policy implication of this classical proposition is that a primary-producing country need not industrialize to enjoy the gains from technical progress taking place in manufactures; free play of international market forces will distribute the gains from the industrial countries to the primary-producing countries through the higher prices of their exports of primary products relative to the prices of their imports of manufactures that is, the terms-of-trade will move in favor of primary-product exporting countries.
It was, however, a League of Nations report prepared by Folke Hilgerdt and its subsequent follow-up by the United Nations in that is actually the origin of the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis and the related debate.
It was observed in these reports that during the sixty years preceding primary product prices had fallen relative to prices of manufactures. It was pointed out that productivity increased faster in the industrialized countries constituting the North or the industrial center than in the primary-producing countries constituting the South or the raw-material supplying peripheryso that the terms-of-trade should have moved in favor of the Southgiven the factors of free trade and competition.
The South could have enjoyed the fruits of technical progress taking place in industry through free trade and specialization in primary production without going for industrialization, as suggested in the classical writings.
But this did not happen as the available evidence showed. Singer prebisch thesis explained the primary-producing countries were advised to pursue a vigorous policy of industrialization with the suspension of the free play of international market forces.
The path of ISI in basically agricultural countries required imports of machines and technology. So, in the process of industrialization these countries began to face acute balance-of-payments problems.
This led many southern countries to follow the path of export-oriented industrialization. Dependence on a few primary-product exports was reduced and these began to be substituted by manufactured exports.
Meanwhile, the emphasis of the Prebisch—Singer hypothesis shifted from the relations between types of commodities to relations between types of countries. The shift of emphasis too had its origin in the writings of Kindleberger in the mid- to late s.
In fact, both Prebisch and Singer had in mind the concept of terms-of-trade between the North and the South. But, in the absence of appropriate data, they used the series on terms-of-trade between primary products and manufactures as a proxy, with the logic that primary products dominated the then export structure of the South and manufactures dominated that of the North.
The Prebisch-Singer hypothesis generated much controversy in the academic world. In their published papers, critics such as Jacob VinerR. BaldwinG. MeierG. HaberlerR. LipseyHarry JohnsonPaul BairochRonald Findlayand many others raised different statistical questions and discarded the hypothesis.
Yangand many others questioned the validity of the criticism and provided strong statistical support for the Prebisch—Singer hypothesis, thereby bringing it back into the limelight.
In his work Prebisch tried to explain the phenomenon in terms of the interaction of the diverse economic structures of the North and the South with different phases of business cycles.
In an upswing, wages and profit, and so prices, rise more in the North than in the South due to stronger labor unions and higher monopoly power of the northern capitalists. In the downswing, northern profits and wages do not fall much due to the same reason.
The burden of adjustment falls on the raw material suppliers of the South; their prices fall more than the prices of manufactures. The diverse economic structures created an asymmetry in the mechanism of distribution of the fruits of technical progress, argued Prebisch, Singer, and Arthur Lewis in their individual works published in the s.
In the North, technical progress and productivity improvements led to higher wages and profit while in the South, these led to lower prices. The North-South models of Findlay and Sarkar and b supported this asymmetry. Granted this asymmetry, the terms-of-trade would turn against the interest of the South in the process of long-term growth and technical progress in both the North and the South.
In Sarkar provided another explanation in terms of product cycles. A new product is often introduced in the North. Initially there is a craze for this product and its income elasticity is very high.
Owing to a lack of knowledge of its production technique, the South cannot start its production. The South produces comparatively older goods with lower income elasticity.The Origins and Interpretation of the Prebisch-Singer Thesis John Toye and Richard Toye The Prebisch-Singer thesis is generally taken to be the proposition that the net barter terms of trade between primary products (raw materials) and manufactures have been subject to a long-run downward trend.
Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis THE PREBISCH-SINGER HYPOTHESIS AND ITS POLICY IMPLICATIONS THE EVOLUTION OF THE PREBISCH-SINGER HYPOTHESIS THE PREBISCH-SINGER HYPOTHESIS: DIFFERENT EXPLANATIONS BIBLIOGRAPHY Source for information on Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis: International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences dictionary.
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The Prebisch-Singer Thesis has come to be criticized on several grounds: (i) Not Firm Basis for Inference: The inference of secular deterioration of terms of trade for the LDC’s rests upon the exports of primary vis-a-vis manufactured products.
 SAP is an acronym for Structural Adjustment Program, a set of economic policies inspired by the theoretical framework of neo-classical monetary theory and imposed on several debtor nations by the IMF and World Bank in the s and 80s.
Nigeria officially adopted SAP in Feb 26, · Hans Singer topic. Sir Hans Wolfgang Singer (29 November – 26 February ) was a development economist best known for the Singer–Prebisch thesis, which states that the terms of trade move against producers of primary products.